Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Maureen Sharib on January 1, 2009 at 10:03am

I've said this before - a long time ago when I was in college one of my economics professors said:
"When America catches a cold the rest of the world catches pneumonoia."
It's about the only thing I remember from my major.
;)
I think it is still true.
I know it's not much solace but the world might keep this in mind next time they so readily condemn us.
Some disagree:
"The dynamism and resilience of emerging markets mean that America does not matter as much as it once did." ~Source
You decide. What do you think?
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Permalink Reply by John G. Self on January 1, 2009 at 11:43am

We are ALL in uncharted waters. No one knows what is going to happen, including the geniuses on Wall Street, or what is left of it.

U.S. banks received a major infusion of capital to break the credit freeze and yet credit is still frozen. In the U.S., banks are being told to lend AND to increase their reserves. Why?

CREDIT CARD DEBT....This issue is hardly discussed right now. The American media is too busy fretting over a 4.9 percent decline in holiday sales. As people lose their jobs, they struggle to pay bills. Unemployment insurance hardly covers a $100K (US) lifestyle. I am worried about a wave of credit card defaults that could drive down more banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve has used all their ammo to jump start the economy. Will President-Elect Obama's stimulus plan work? No one knows. And on that point is from whence my angst originates....

I have been accused of being a cynic on the current state of the U.S. economy. Not true. I am an optimist that has not arrived, to quote Mark Twain, I believe.

I hope President-Elect Obama can walk on water….

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Permalink Reply by Maureen Sharib on January 1, 2009 at 12:06pm

I am so dismayed at the news (notice it comes over the holidays when many are not paying attention) that the banks cannot track (What? Who do they think they're kidding? They can track 3 cents on late fees and hunt you down to the gates of Hell to get you to pay those but they can't tell us where SEVEN HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS went -do you know HOW MUCH MONEY THAT IS, people?) where the money went? It's outrageous, stupifyingly insulting and yet WE THE PEOPLE barely hear the news much less react!

I am in a state of shock - our treasury has been ROBBED and nobody is saying A THING about it. Now this additional near-trillion dollar stimulus (it's around$700B again isn't it?) where will that come from? From the taxpayer's back? I guess they'll keep doing it in $700B "packages" 'til we start howling -well, I'm howling NOW. I want some answers. I'm sick of being laughed at.

"A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves." - Edward R Murrow

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Permalink Reply by Dan Nuroo on January 1, 2009 at 8:50pm

Cheers Maureen, I doubt the US could ever ,or would ever allow itself to become irrelevent, or not matter. China may start to matter more in the nearish future, but I doubt it.

BTW way the main thing I remember about my degree was a slide they put up on the last lecture I ever had. They had done a survey of past students as to the relevance of the degree to their job. 0% was the answer.. great way to build up the importance of your education and their degree.!

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Permalink Reply by John G. Self on January 1, 2009 at 9:16pm

Hello,

Maureen, inconvenient news is frequently pushed out to the unwashed masses late on Friday afternoons or over the holidays. The Washington phrase is "throw it out with the trash" when no one is paying attention. After the last 8 years, nothing surprises me. But get ready, most policy wonks, economists, etc. think that the new administration will have to propose a huge new stimulus to help jump start the economy.

Keep in mind, when they cut taxes and went to war, it was essential for people to keep spending. They need that to ensure that tax revenues kept up. But then from 2002 to 2006 we had the largest increase in NON DEFENSE, NON WAR domestic spending in our history. And people have run up huge credit card debts. But no one noticed much except the WSJ and a few others because spiraling home values and silly mortgages that approached fairy tale status covered the bad news. Yet, this meltdown was bound to happen, just like the dot.com bubble in the last 90s. But this time it was worse because credit markets seized. But look at the bright side, we have probably been in a recession for at least a year but people are just now paying attention.

I am grateful to be a healthcare because we tend to be more recession proof than other industries. But even this little bit of safety for my industry won't last if this recession is prolonged.

So, whether we like it or not, we do not have much of a choice now. We are going to mortgage our kids and grandkids futures with a very, very large stimulus package to avoid economic catastrophe.

Some in the professional services industry – consultants, etc. – are going to have a challenging year.

That's my story and I am sticking with it.

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Permalink Reply by Maureen Sharib on January 2, 2009 at 8:04am

BEIJING (Reuters) – Factories in China and India joined much of Europe in slashing output and jobs at a record pace in December, another sign the biggest emerging markets were wilting under the recession gripping industrialized nations.

Factory activity surveys in the United States were also expected to show a steeper contraction in December, as demand collapses in the Western countries that developing nations rely on as export markets.

Economists and policymakers had seen China, Russia, India and Brazil, with their vast markets and rising wealth, as the engines of growth that could save the world from recession. Those hopes are fading fast and forecasts are getting gloomier.

More here on expectations being dashed.

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Permalink Reply by Steve Levy on January 2, 2009 at 9:34am

John makes a great point - other war times have galvanized a nation, primarily I believe because there was a common enemy that for some reason people bought into. Can't figure out - other than for political and a few social reasons - why the masses don't believe the threat of global terrorism isn't at the very least as important and real as the threat was of global communism. Perhaps this one real downside to the Internet - you can see pictures of real terrorists and interviews with Wall Street CEOs and Alan Greenspan on CSPAN saying "Duh" and tweets about conspiracy theories rather than a McCarthyism constructed picture of a red devil. Despite the hardships, WWII brought people together whereas we're seeing a fracturing during this crisis.

Again, John's allusion that this meltdown was bound to happen, is right on: Every balloon will burst if pumped up too much. And this one was blown with political hot air from both sides as well as in different languages.

Dan, I have to read the papers and posit scenarios and strategies because to do otherwise would be akin to crawling into a fallout shelter and having life pass by. While most of the masses wouldn't mind sleeping through this, some of us simply cannot. Whether it's here in the States or down under in Australia, businesses obviously need to grow and to grow implies talent related activities. Those that don't will be shrivel when the economy recovers. Layoffs mean that many who are left behind as survivors (I hate this survivorism that the media focuses on after layoffs; to me it's a reason for employees to hunker down and do just enough to get by) will have at their disposal poor leaders and ultimately to less than stellar results; if this doesn't scream for recruiting better people then I don't know what else can.

For as long as I've been contributing online, I've been adamant that recruiters need to be PESTs - be fully aware of the political, economic, social and technological issues that could possibly impact our profession. Save for occasional posts like this one, there's been little interest in anything other than best ATS, best Boolean string to find resumes, and most unethical recruiting practices.

We need to push and develop the role of recruiting as part of the enterprise strategic planning process. It isn't difficult but it will require recruiters to speak up. And if HR won't do it for you, stick your damn neck out and try talking directly to the CEO.

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Permalink Reply by John G. Self on January 2, 2009 at 9:40am

Steve Levy said:

John makes a great point - other war times have galvanized a nation, primarily I believe because there was a common enemy that for some reason people bought into. Can't figure out - other than for political and a few social reasons - why the masses don't believe the threat of global terrorism isn't at the very least as important and real as the threat was of global communism. Perhaps this one real downside to the Internet - you can see pictures of real terrorists and interviews with Wall Street CEOs and Alan Greenspan on CSPAN saying "Duh" and tweets about conspiracy theories rather than a McCarthyism constructed picture of a red devil. Despite the hardships, WWII brought people together whereas we're seeing a fracturing during this crisis.

Again, John's allusion that this meltdown was bound to happen, is right on: Every balloon will burst if pumped up too much. And this one was blown with political hot air from both sides as well as in different languages.

Dan, I have to read the papers and posit scenarios and strategies because to do otherwise would be akin to crawling into a fallout shelter and having life pass by. While most of the masses wouldn't mind sleeping through this, some of us simply cannot. Whether it's here in the States or down under in Australia, businesses obviously need to grow and to grow implies talent related activities. Those that don't will be shrivel when the economy recovers. Layoffs mean that many who are left behind as survivors (I hate this survivorism that the media focuses on after layoffs; to me it's a reason for employees to hunker down and do just enough to get by) will have at their disposal poor leaders and ultimately to less than stellar results; if this doesn't scream for recruiting better people then I don't know what else can.

For as long as I've been contributing online, I've been adamant that recruiters need to be PESTs - be fully aware of the political, economic, social and technological issues that could possibly impact our profession. Save for occasional posts like this one, there's been little interest in anything other than best ATS, best Boolean string to find resumes, and most unethical recruiting practices.

We need to push and develop the role of recruiting as part of the enterprise strategic planning process. It isn't difficult but it will require recruiters to speak up. And if HR won't do it for you, stick your damn neck out and try talking directly to the CEO.

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Permalink Reply by John G. Self on January 2, 2009 at 10:17am

Dan, Maureen and Steve:

I would recommend everyone read Fareed Zakaria's book, The Post-American World. Great perspective in terms of how we are all connected. Exceptional points on China and India and a healthy, realistic look at America’s role as we enter a new era which he calls the “rise of the rest.”

I will bring my part of the conversation to a close with this comment: The economic troubles, the public's dissatisfaction with the War in Iraq -- which was not central to the war on terrorism if you believe Condi Rice's statements on videotape in 2000 ("Saddam is contained and poses no threat.") – our narcissistic entitlement philosophy that is so rampant in the U.S., which Maureen so appropriately pointed out, are all a reflection of leadership. We can disagree on whether President Bush's policies contributed to our current mess. Some of his ideas were spot on. But he missed opportunity after opportunity to be a great leader. I was in NYC on the Friday following 9/11. As Bush spoke on the pile of rubble, with his arm around the retired NYFD volunteer, he had the nation ready to act. We all moved to the edge of our chairs, ready to stand up and sacrifice. Then nothing. Later, he said our role to support the war on terror effort was, in essence, to go to the malls and spend. Our armed forces were sent to war, sometimes poorly armed and prepared, and the America was not really involved. So, over time, it is not surprising that We the People turned against him. It is true in life, politics and with the leadership of a company.

I would argue the Presidency of George Bush will become a great case study not over bad policies, although the way Vice President Cheney and Sec. Rumsfeld managed Iraq was pretty far off the mark. No, his Presidency will be a great case study on leadership opportunities lost. He is not a bad man. He believes and is convinced he was right.

I think the healthiest thing we can do in our process of moving on is to look at the leadership issues and learn. Every leader in government or business can learn from this administration’s style and actions – the good and the not so good.

America is the greatest nation in the world. I reject the notion we have entered our period of decline. It will take decades for India and China to match us militarily and with a sophisticated economy, if ever. I reject the argument that we are in decline because I know that good leadership can right wrongs and redirect the national course, to regain the high ground of moral leadership of the world. However, I also think that our role in the world as a superpower and world leader will forever be changed by the past eight years. The war on terror will continue but not in the same way as we see it today. Instead of unilateral action, you will see the U.S. function as the Chairman of the Board with military force as a true and last resort. Truth be told, if we use force against every nation that has ignored UN resolutions, we would be at war with so many countries, including Israel.

Our world is much flatter and interconnected. Over the next five years we will see dramatic changes, even in our world of talent acqusition and talent managment. There will be painful changes and new opportunities. It is how we respond to the latter that will determine whether we have entered the period of great decline or not.

God bless the USA and thanks to our friends in Australia, the UK, Canada, etc. who have supported us even when we are wrong.

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Permalink Reply by Maureen Sharib on January 2, 2009 at 10:45am

President Bush believes history will be kind to him.

Unrelated: There's a public TV channel running a series this week on the operations of the White House. It's very, very interesting to see what it takes to keep the place running!

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Permalink Reply by John G. Self on January 2, 2009 at 10:50am

Thanks Maureen. I will look at it. I have visited the White House twice for receptions. -- years and years ago. It is extraordinary. But at times you almost feel like you are on a TV set. There was stuffed stacked outside between events, etc. We sometimes forget that it is a very busy, crammed office building and a personal residence. You can easily see how someone can get isolated there!

I hope you have a great 2009. Knock it out of the park.

Read this article an let me know what you think.

Attachments:

• Next_Level_Leadership_v4.96.pdf, 366 KB

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Permalink Reply by Steve Levy on January 2, 2009 at 11:00am

John, the problem with traditional views on leadership is that leadership is at the head of the organization. As such, most every traditional head-of-the-fish leader has only so many paradigm shifting ideas in them (or if you prefer, the top sitting leadership team). The article you attached speaks just to this.

In reality, true leadership can appear from anywhere. The question to ask is whether the organization can accept and fund anywhere leadership. Most can't. Bush's administration couldn't because of Cheney - too old school for anything but Cold War based policies.

John G. Self said:

Thanks Maureen. I will look at it. I have visited the White House twice for receptions. -- years and years ago. It is extraordinary. But at times you almost feel like you are on a TV set. There was stuffed stacked outside between events, etc. We sometimes forget that it is a very busy, crammed office building and a personal residence. You can easily see how someone can get isolated there!

I hope you have a great 2009. Knock it out of the park.

Read this article an let me know what you think.

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