As varying marketplace anxiously await the coming next series of unemployment numbers –  here’s a quick recap of what has caught my attention over the last couple months.

1.      January’s unemployment rate was 9.0%, down from 9.4% in December and 9.8% in November.

2.      The measure of employee output per hour – i.e. worker productivity – rose at a 2.6 percent annual rate in the last quarter of 2010.

3.      Labor costs fell 1.5% in 2010.

Although there are good reasons to be wary of the 9.0% number*, the general trend in unemployment is downward, and that is good news. What’s not so good news is that it’s coming down slowly.

At this rate, the county will have somewhere around an 8% unemployment rate at this time next year, which means that an awful lot of fully-qualified workers will continue to look for work in the next year and beyond. Why is the unemployment rate coming down so slowly? The answer brings us to the next statistic on my list.

A lot of labor scholars were surprised by the high productivity number for the fourth quarter of 2010. I wasn’t, however.

The increasing sophistication and decreasing cost of software (including staffing software) and the increased use of sophisticated software on the cloud is bound to increase productivity for many quarters to come.

And as the unemployment numbers indicate, it’s still an employer’s market out there, which means that employers can demand more productivity from their workers. The last number – labor costs falling 1.5% in 2010 – reflects both these trends.

So, what’s next? Lots of commentators are saying that productivity won’t rise as fast in 2011 because employers will respond to the improving economy by hiring more. I’m not so sure. For one, I don’t think unemployment will drop all that quickly. I also think that software and other products will continue to come on the market that will increase productivity in hundreds of fields.

I’m also wondering if the number of independent contractors is on the rise. When people think of “independent contractors” or “freelancers,” they’re prone to envision writers and photographers.

But the fact is that freelance software engineers, CPAs, research assistants, marketing specialists, web designers, trainers, public relations professionals, and just-about-any-job-you-can-name are everywhere, and their number may be growing. They could partly account for the lower labor costs of 2010, and they could account for a growing share of the labor market in years to come if employers think that it’s just too much expense and hassle to sign someone up full time.

Stay tuned. I’ll be sure to comment again in this space as more employment numbers come in.

*Why am I suspicious of this number? For now, this article will give you a good explanation. Soon, though, I’ll do a blog post on the difficulty of interpreting employment and unemployment figures.

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