Economic Forecasts

http://myweb.rollins.edu/wseyfried/forecast.htm

link to my blog

Recent Forecasts

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (2014 annual forecast; latest monthly forecast, Nov 2013; Dec 20-latest weekly analysis): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013Q4 and 2014Q1; 2.4% in 2014 and 3% in 2015; PCE inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015; core CPI inflation = 1.9% in 2014, 2.1% in 2015; unemployment rate = 6.6% by the end of 2014 and 6.2% at end of 2015; Fed starts to raise the federal funds rate in Summer 2015

Fed Forecast as of Dec 2013: economic growth = 2.8-3.2% in 2014, 3-3.4% in 2015 and 2.5-3.2% in 2016; long-run economic growth = 2.2-2.4% (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter); unemployment rate = 6.3-6.6% in 2014, 5.8-6.1% in 2015, 5.3%-5.8% in 2016 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); natural rate of unemployment = 5.2 to 5.8%; inflation as measured by PCE index of 1.4 to 1.6% (core = 1.4-1.6%) in 2014, 1.5-2% (core = 1.6-2%) in 2015 and 1.7-2% in 2016 (core = 1.8-2%)

Economic forecasting survey, Dec 2013 (WSJ): economic growth = 1.7% in 2013Q4, 2.5% in 2014Q1; 2.7% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015; unemployment = 6.5% at end of 2014, 6% at end of 2015; inflation = 2% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015; expect interest rate hike in early 2015; Fed begins to taper QE3 by Jan 2014, end of QE3 in late 2014

Livingston Survey (latest survey - Dec 12, 2013): economic growth = 2.5% in first half of 2014, 2.8% in second half of 2014; unemployment rate = 7% in June 2014, 6.7% in Dec 2014; inflation (CPI) = 1.8% for 2014 and 2.1% in 2015; long-term economic growth = 2.6%, inflation averages 2.3% over the next decade

Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey Nov 2013): economic growth = 1.8% in 2013Q4, 2.5% in 2014Q1; 2.6% in 2014, 2.8% in 2015, 2.7% in 2016; inflation (PCE)=1.9% in 2014 and 2015 (core PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate = 7.2% in 2013Q4. 6.8% in 2014Q4; average unemployment rate = 6.4% in 2015, 6% in 2016

Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - Nov 21, 2013): economic growth = 2.7% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015; inflation (CPI) = 1.5% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015 (core inflation = 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015); unemployment rate averages 6.7% in 2014 and declines to 6% by end of 2015

OECD (Nov 2013): economic growth = 2.1% in 2013Q4, 3% in 2014Q1; 2.9% in 2014, 3.4% in 2015; inflation = 1.6% in 2014, 1.8% in 2015; unemployment rate = 6.7% at end of 2014, 6.1% at end of 2015; Fed begins to raise the federal funds rate in 2015Q2

Quarterly economic survey (USA Today - Oct 2013): economic growth = 1.9% in 2013Q3, 2.1% in 2013Q4; 3% in 2014Q4; unemployment rate = 7.2% by end of 2013. 6.7% by end of 2014; Fed begins to taper in March 2014, ends QE in 2014Q4; increses the federal funds rate in 2015

IMF (Sep): US economic growth = 1.5% in 2013, 2.5% in 2014

OMB (July 2013 - see page 6-7): economic growth = 2.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015; unemployment (Q4) = 7.3% in 2013, 6.8% in 2014, 6.3% in 2015; inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 2.2% in 2014-2015; natural rate of unemployment = 5.4%; see pdf page 9 for comparison with other forecasts

CBO (Feb 5): economic growth = 1.4% in 2013, 3.4% in 2014 (baseline assumes the implementation of spending cuts); unemployment rate = 8% at end of 2013, 7.6% at end of 2014, 6.8% at end of 2015; PCE inflation = 1.3% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014; growth in potential GDP = 2.3% for 2019-2023; potential GDP grows by 1.8% in 2013, about 2% in 2014-2015, 2.3-2.4% afterwards; natural rate of unemployment = 6%, but begins to decline very slowly in 2014

Current Economic Data

Economy at a Glance (BLS): Orlando Metropolitan Area;  Florida

last updated: 12/27/2013