Funny Math

There is some funny math going on here. Like my kids say, it's not funny ha ha.......it's funny strange! See, the numbers are always supposed to add up and make sense. But right now there is something missing. We had good production in the fourth quarter. The numbers were good for production in January as well. Number of interviews and candidates in the pipeline? All looking really good. Up and down the line, all of the critical numbers that we look at are good. Very good considering the last couple of years. All except one. The job flow is not as high as it has been in better times. It's okay, we have a decent amount of jobs in various industries coming through, but not the real flow of jobs that we've seen before and want to see again. Most companies are not ready to push forward with hiring that warrants outside assistance, and we hear that clearly every day. At this point I am viewing this in a couple of different ways. On the negative side, this is the coal that feeds the engine. The train won't go without fuel and the fuel is the job flow. So I have some concern there. On the other hand, with just okay job flow all of the other numbers are up and look pretty strong.

So, in general, the jobs we are getting are better and we are doing a better job on those positions. So are we getting better at what we do? Sure....to some degree. The longer you are in business the better you get. Experience always helps you improve. However, I think there are some other factors at work as well. I believe the recruiting industry is much smaller now and we have seen some direct evidence of that. So while business conditions aren't great out there for companies to have a thriving need for outside recruiting, there is more market share for those doing good work. Also, with business conditions being pretty tough and maybe recovering a little or bouncing, the opportunities where outside recruiting is needed are stronger. One thing is sure. Our industry has been going through massive change. Getting a grip on what that means is a challenge, but I think we are seeing some of that start to take shape.

Todd Kmiec
Todd Kmiec & Associates
todd@toddkmiec.com

Comment by Maureen Sharib on February 4, 2010 at 11:34am: I think these are remarkably bad times - times that probably all of us have never seen before.
You seem to be touching upon this when you say:
I believe the recruiting industry is much smaller now and we have seen some direct evidence of that. So while business conditions aren't great out there for companies to have a thriving need for outside recruiting, there is more market share for those doing good work. Also, with business conditions being pretty tough and maybe recovering a little or bouncing, the opportunities where outside recruiting is needed are stronger.
Even though the industry numbers are way off it stands to reason that the business out there would be enough to sustain those left. This doesn't seem to be the case and this is what I mean when I say remarkably bad. And I don't think Im alone when I say this. I agree with you Todd. The numbers aren't adding up.

Comment by Todd Kmiec on February 4, 2010 at 1:30pm: Maureen, you bring up a great point that the business out there does not seem to be enough to sustain the industry at this point. That is clearly the case and I'm sure you hear stories and see things happening that validate that. I'm seeing a lot of that and it's tough to see. At some point the level of business and size of the industry will reach sustainable levels. Hopefully sooner rather than later. It does seem that things are different with the work that is there. Maybe clients are just much more selective on what they are willing to pay a fee for and that helps everyone in the process. Maybe those left in the industry are just the strongest ones so the work being done all around is better. There is a lot of change on all of these fronts.

Comment by Gerry Crispin on February 4, 2010 at 4:53pm: So here's a thought about job flow. I'm in the midst of crunching numbers for about 160,000 hires from 40 large firms. Seems the fills attributed to internal moves and promotions has crept up to 50% in 2009 from about 1/3 just two years ago. Might change in 2010 now that firms are expecting to add about 30% this coming year (to almost replace the the 30% dip from last year). Just a thought.

Comment by George LaRocque on February 4, 2010 at 5:23pm: Interesting post. I think you raise a good point and perspective.

The staffing industry has always reacted to economic shifts like an accordian - shrinking to a resource level under capacity during the bad market - and expanding over capacity during the good. This economic "recovery" is more of a long flat line in 2010 than we've seen before.

Flat ain't so bad! In fact, to your point, it's good for firms that do good work and have the ability to innovate, go get better people on staff, grow market share, and use the flat market as a launch pad to prepare for a time of more aggressive growth.

I think you'll see a lot of interesting things happen in 2010. The Monster/HotJobs acquisition (yawn) is just the first.... I put a few more of my predictions here several weeks ago - ALL of them predicated on the fact that 2010 will be remembered as the year that was flat.